FrontierWhat is becoming possible?
The BCI Frontier
A map of what brain-computer interfaces can do, arranged by how firmly each capability is established: demonstrated in people at the centre, emerging possibilities at the rim. Choose a domain to see what is possible today, the latest milestone, who is working on it and what has to happen next.
- Demonstrated today
- Early clinical
- Research frontier
- Emerging possibility
Zones are qualitative editorial judgements. A capability sits in a zone, not at a point, and the map implies no ranking between domains.
Frontier domain
Vision
What is possible today
A subretinal implant restored the ability to read letters and words in most participants with geographic atrophy in a multicentre study, and was CE-marked in 2026. Cortical prostheses for other causes of blindness remain experimental.
Latest important milestone22 Jul 2026
PRIMA launched commercially in Europe following CE marking.
Capabilities by zone
- Central form vision through a retinal implantDemonstrated today
- Letter recognition from visual-cortex stimulationEarly clinical
- Wireless intracortical visual prosthesesEarly clinical
- High-channel cortical arrays for richer perceptsResearch frontier
- Vision sufficient for independent navigationEmerging possibility
- Approaches
- Photovoltaic subretinal implants · Intracortical microstimulation of visual cortex · Dynamic current steering on the cortical surface
- Clinical maturity
- Retinal: authorised in Europe for one indication. Cortical: first-in-human and feasibility studies.
- Labs
- University of BonnHôpital des Quinze-VingtsIllinois Institute of TechnologyMiguel Hernández UniversityBaylor College of Medicine
- Companies
- Science CorporationNeuralink
What needs to happen next
- 01Regulatory review of the retinal implant in the United States
- 02Real-world outcome data after commercial implantation
- 03Cortical systems with enough electrodes to convey shape reliably
Vision now has the field's first modern commercial product, for a specific retinal disease. Cortical vision is a much harder problem and should be read as early research, whatever its long-term promise.
Unresolved and emerging
Open Frontiers
The questions that decide what happens next. Each is read across six dimensions, so that scientific momentum, clinical need and capital can be seen side by side.
Open question
Scientific momentum
Clinical need
Human evidence
Technical maturity
Competition density
Capital intensity
- Early human evidence
- High technical uncertainty
Published human data extend to years for a few participants and designs. Each new electrode technology has to earn its own record.
Start fromPlug-and-play control of a brain–computer interface through neural map stabilizationSampling representational plasticity of simple imagined movements across days enables long-term neuroprosthetic controlIntracortical
- Scientific momentum
- moderate
- Clinical need
- high
- Human evidence
- moderate
- Technical maturity
- low
- Competition density
- moderate
- Capital intensity
- high
Bars show low, moderate or high on each dimension. These are BCI Briefing judgements intended to make the landscape legible. They do not rank opportunities and are not investment advice.
The outlook
What happens next?
Four horizons, from now to beyond five years. Observed trajectories are on the left; plausible milestones, necessary breakthroughs and key uncertainties follow to the right.
Now
Observed trajectory
Speech BCI word accuracy over large vocabularies rose from about 76% to 97.5% in peer-reviewed reports between 2023 and 2024.
A high-performance speech neuroprosthesisAn Accurate and Rapidly Calibrating Speech Neuroprosthesis
Observed trajectory
Commercial implanted BCIs are in registered feasibility studies in five countries.
Observed trajectory
Six rounds of $200M or more appear in our sample of announcements since mid-2025.
Key uncertainty
Most company performance figures have not been independently measured or peer reviewed.
1–2 years
Plausible next milestone
A pivotal trial of a permanently implanted BCI is registered.
Plausible next milestone
Peer-reviewed results appear from commercial early feasibility studies.
Necessary breakthrough
High-performance decoders that stay calibrated for months without supervised retraining.
Key uncertainty
Whether signal quality from newer electrode designs holds beyond the first years in people.
3–5 years
Plausible next milestone
A first marketing authorisation for an implanted communication or control BCI in a major market.
Necessary breakthrough
Fully implanted, wireless, high-channel systems with multi-year reliability data.
Key uncertainty
Reimbursement, surgical capacity and long-term device support — the factors that decided the pace of cochlear implant adoption.
Beyond
Plausible next milestone
Bidirectional systems that combine movement and touch in everyday use.
Necessary breakthrough
A non-implanted signal with bandwidth approaching implanted systems. There is no human evidence for this yet.
Key uncertainty
How society chooses to govern interfaces for people without a medical need.
Only the first column describes what has happened. Everything to its right is a forward-looking judgement by The BCI Briefing as of 3 Oct 2026, and should be read as uncertain.